The Fed’s quarterly economic survey reveals decline in trade in Q3 compared to Q2

25/11/2025

The Fed’s quarterly economic survey – conducted in conjunction with the Independent Retailers Confederation – has indicated a decline in trade in Q3 compared to Q2 and economic pessimism for the future, ahead of this week’s budget.

The quarterly Heartbeat survey was conducted along with members of the IRC which showed overall 42% of retailers had seen a fall in trade in the Quarter. Amongst members of the Fed there was particularly great concern, with 71% of respondents stating they had seen a fall in business in July-September with trade either “somewhat worse” or “much worse”, compared to the April-June period.

Comments left by Fed members included: “Cost of living is creating a money conscious customer.” , “Inflation has been a big factor of sales being down compared to previous year” and “Consumer confidence at an extreme low” “Confidence in the future of public finance along with the uncertainty of the fiscal situation leading to less spending”.

The IRC survey results follows a Fed survey at the start of the financial year showed that 52 per cent of Fed members said they would be cutting back their workforce and 41 per cent said they would opt to simply increase costs in response to the changes made in the Autumn 2024 Budget.

Last month, the Fed’s President Hetal Patel noted continued financial anxiety and business concern ahead of this year’s budget and called on Chancellor Rachel Reeves MP to but small businesses at the heart of her Budget in order to secure the vital economic growth and tax receipts needed to fund public services which small retailers provide. https://thefedonline.com/homepage/rachel-reeves-protect-retailers-budget/

In particular, the Fed has lobbied the Chancellor and other Labour Government representatives to focus on measures to control Rates Bills with concern small shops might be impacted by Business Rate Revaluation if the Small Business Rates Relief threshold is not raised at a commensurate rate. The Fed also called on the Government to keep the National Minimum Wage increase in line with inflation and to continue to provide new resources to tackle retail crime.

The Fed will update members on the outcome of this week’s Budget, soon after it is announced on the afternoon of this Wednesday, 26th November, in a statement which will be delivered from 12.30h.